Fishing Science

[joybaby]

I have read about the fishing and must tell you that after 5 or 6 months and countless hours fishing (using about everything I could think of as a trick/gimmick/charm/spell etc.) I am still stuck at 61 species. I wish I was just looking for the last 4 or 5 fish. If I could just get one of the species I needed I would have some hope. I am frustrated for sure, but I won't give up! I agree with the last statement - at least you can earn your way through the rest of toontown even with the random frustrations (fellow toons, cog hit/miss etc.) Fishing offers no incentive based on anything other than patience and just plain stubbornness! If I reach 62 species...you will be the first to know...

[melton180]

ok guys i know how they do it they put all the fish into the pond and pond is really a thing that radomly picks a fish when you hot the spot but if it is one fish that you need beeter rod ir scarbles them again and the main coumpter does in such short time

[Milton]

Are you REALLY sure that the dock at a specific pond isn't a variable???

[Prof. Pickles McPretzel]

Originally Posted by Milton

Are you REALLY sure that the dock at a specific pond isn't a variable???

STOP BUMPING THREADS!
Don't post on old threads ok?>_<

[Sketch Maker]

Originally Posted by Kehawin

Tink

You know about my less than perfect abilities with math... However, I did grasp probabilities a little better than algebra...

When you said about the coin being flipped, 10 times coming up with heads then what are the probabilites of the next flip coming up heads...

yes, the probability of the 11th toss coming up heads is still 50/50, given that there are only 2 choices, one or the other. However, when taken in context of likelihood, we have to add them all together.

So, if the probability of getting the first toss to be heads is 1:2, the next one is 1:2 TIMES 1:2, and the third is 1:2 TIMES 1:2 TIMES 1:2...

so the probability is still 1:2 for the individual toss on the eleventh toss being heads, but the likelihood is (1:2)x(1:2)x(1:2)x(1:2)x(1:2)x(1:2)x(1:2)x(1:2)x(1 :2)x(1:2)x(1:2) which means the actual probability is 1 in 2 to the 11th power, or 1 in 2048. So, if you tossed a coin 11 times, then tossed it 11 times again, and so on for 2048 sets, there is a PROBABILITY that one of those times you will get heads all 11 times, not a guarantee.

The likelihood or odds get even higher in numbers when you add more choices.

Given this, and given all the fishing done by all the toons that have fished, I am sure some mathematical genius (or a computer program...) COULD figure out actual probabilities for any given fish (if he were given the number of casts and the number of fish caught.) This I believe was the idea behind the TUFS program (Toontown unofficial fishing statistics), however the results are unreliable because so few people actually participated.

What I am trying to say here, is that an individual toons probability of catching any certain fish MAY NOT BE what is programmed. It could possibly be programmed for each cast, regardless of who casts it. In fact, when I hear "I caught the devil ray/allstar/holeymackerel/insert rare fish here on my noob/midlafftoon/toon I rarely fish on etc in the FIRST BUCKET!" it points me to idea that it has more to do with all casts on that server rather than an individual toon.

Who knows?

But, if it is true that the probability is assigned to each cast rather than individual toons, the fact that some people claim that fishing in a certain district is more profitable for them, or that fishing at the same district same pond, or fishing all the ponds in all of toontown for 3-4 buckets each, or some of these other theories, the theories start to make sense as to why they might work.

I am sure very few people except Tink actually followed that! HAHA. So thanks in advance for understanding me Tink, since you always do!

But what happens when 4 different toons, each catch concord in the same district, same pond, all within 1 hour? How does that add up to anything exept luck? Or just landing on heads 4 times out of the 60,000 Tails..

Originally Posted by AngeloCook

I have noticed that if you could place a grid over the pond(s), you would tend to catch the same fish types in or around the same location. I have been fishing in several ponds and have been trying to develope a grid location map as to where those elusive fish are hiding. Maybe I am dreaming, but it is a possiblity and there might be a certain spot in each pond from a certain pier to which the probability is the highest to catch each fish.

Hmm, wow that is a good idea. But more people would have to test it out.

[Ice Cold]

Originally Posted by Tinkercat

I have been reading these threads and I am fascinated by how people think about fishing. I am not anyone's expert, I hate to fish, but my weird catch got me thinking.....

#1 Toontown is a MAN MADE computer program. If something is more likely or less likely it is because someone programmed it that way most likely intentionally, but I suppose a likelyhood could be a result of a sort of "glitch" in the programming.

#2 When they were dreaming up this programming what did they decide about fishing?

From reading this is what I think. I think someone made an analogy to lotto. I think it was good. I think the variables are your rod and the pond. I think they have programmed it that any toon with a certain rod in a certain pond ( and I doubt the dock or district is a variable ) has exactly the same odds everytime of catching a given fish.

To explain, if you flip a coin ( assuming it has an even weight distributed and is flipped the same way everytime ) and you come up heads 10 times in a row are you more or less likely to have it come up heads again? The odds are the same everytime, no matter what happened before. It is 50/50 everytime.
This is something people have trouble wrapping their brains around. For example, if a woman has four baby boys, is she more likely to have a girl the next time? No, her odds are about 50/50 just like they were the last four times ( that is assuming there is not some variable which makes girls more likely ......and I know this is g rated so I guess I will abandon this analogy ).

I LOVE the argument, because it makes sense, that people are creating artificial ideas about odds because of these fishing reports. I imagine a toontown developer reading the fishing reports sending this email to a colleague " **** read ttc they think it is more likely you catch the stinky flounder in Tinks Fairyland because they are all fishing there, what idiots"

Now of course I could be wrong. Someone could have said, I really want to make those toons nuts....instead of the odds being the usual 1:2000 or Tenor in Bouncyville I am going to make it 1:1500. It is totally possible. In that case, they would be saying " gosh darn it will they ever figure out it is more likely in my secret pond"

Or maybe some programmer who is enjoying this social experiment goes in and says " the odds are usually 1:2000 but on every third Wednesday from 1-2 pm PST I am going to make them 1:1000!, take that toons!"

Or, they could say, " think I will program it so after a toon has fished for a total of 20 hours in Pumbaland the odds of catching the Fairygodmother fish will go from 1:5000 to 1:2500. Or should I I make it 1:50 for the first hour?"

I got to thinking about this last night when I caught three new species in 30 minutes or so after not catching ANYTHING new for months. I am not a big fisher. I have probably never fish longer than 1/2 hour straight. I hate it. But could someone have programmed this...." when a toon reaches 115 for the first 1/2 hour afterward her odds of catching the Siamese, AllStar and Baby Grand go from 1:100,000,000 to 1:50, but only if she happens to be in bouncyville on the dock to the far right"

I doubt it. I think it was a random fluke of luck. But I am suspicious. The odds probably ARE 1:100000 that you would catch 3 in 30 minutes. Hmmmmm.

I think that they are most likely programmed by pond and rod only and there are no other variables. I think we are chasing our tails and they are cracking up....if they read this.

Hi Disney! Am I right?

Just one thing... don't mean to be a wise guy but if you flip a coin its not 50 50, the head side has more weight and is more likely to land face down.

[little ninja]

How about there are fishes on a list with x, y, g, h, j, d, ect # of fish for each species, and a consistent interval for counting.

[Tooniesty]

I will admit right now two things about this thread:

1. Its confusing for one like me who doesnt enjoy the math of probabilities


2. Other than confusion, this is a VERY interesting thread to all those fishers out there who wonder why they cant get a certain fish, how it works, etc. And I believe that the Sticky is well earned.

[Capt. Alvin Soursticks]

i agree, this thread is very confusing...at the beggining. i read through all the posts and after i started reading more and more i began 2 understand more and more. i cant remember the arguement off the top of my head, but if i read it again i would understand it. and ALL of the opinions make perfect sense i believe. its just a matter of wat is is most likely to happen, or already be in effect.