Fishing Stats and Analysis

[Baron Winky]

I dont think these numbers apply to me. I spent over 50K just looking for the full moon, and still dont have it. It would be my 68 fish if i get it.

[The Dogfather]

Originally Posted by tundaplaya7

Awesome thread. I am however a little confused on the Fish Position thing. What exactly is that?

Thanks! The fish position is the fish number you are on, for example fish #70 represents the last fish. I wasnt too sure how to label it to make it clear so I just labeled it fish position. Maybe I should have waited to write it up sometime today instead of writing it before bed lastnight, LOL. I hope this clears things up for you.

Originally Posted by Baron Winky

I dont think these numbers apply to me. I spent over 50K just looking for the full moon, and still dont have it. It would be my 68 fish if i get it.

That is exactly what I am saying on my post is that catching these fish regardless of what rare species you want or fish positions (fish #68 for you), you can catch him in as little as 1 cast or maybe never. For that fish position there was an average of 17,040.67 fish with the standard deviation of 22,318.98. Also, for that particular species, the average was 17,982.00 with a standard deviation of 19,994.72. To give you actual results on how difficult it is to catch the Concord, the numbers had a spread of 1,239 to 73,466 fish. This is why these mean values have such a large standard deviation. Since this deviation is so large, larger than the actual average, it suggests that these fish are caught randomly or by luck. There is no set pattern.

The Dogfather

[Baron Winky]

This Luck scenario is scary. I could be wasting hours and hours fishing with no luck. How lucky one has to be to get all 70 fish under 2K fish. That person should play the lottery LOL!!!!!

I cought a total of 5 devil rays on my toon with 3 of them in 4 days for the 67th fish. That is either crazy luck or TT is messing with me. I wish they (TT)told us how fishing really works.

[tundaplaya7]

I have another question. What do you think about the odds of getting the fish over time. As in on your first cast you have a 1:30,000 chance of getting it and by our thousandth cast, you have a 1:25,000 chance of catching it. What do you think about that? It seems that it could be probable, but Im not sure.

[The Dogfather]

Originally Posted by Baron Winky

This Luck scenario is scary. I could be wasting hours and hours fishing with no luck. How lucky one has to be to get all 70 fish under 2K fish. That person should play the lottery LOL!!!!!

I cought a total of 5 devil rays on my toon with 3 of them in 4 days for the 67th fish. That is either crazy luck or TT is messing with me. I wish they (TT)told us how fishing really works.

I have noticed the same thing. I think these ridiculous odds of catching a new rare species could possibly run on the first time you catch that specific species. After catching it once, the odds could change for you where you are more likely to catch it again. Why would they do that? Just to mess with us I'm sure.

On my fishing expedition while I was trying to catch the Concord (#70), I caught 2 Grizzlys, 1 All Star, 1 Devil Ray and 1 Mackarel. My friend who was needing the Grizzly for his 70th still could not catch it, although he was on 40,000 fish. I caught those 2 Grizzlys within 10,000 or so fish each. Who knows if the odds do get better for you as you fish more and more.

Originally Posted by tundaplaya7

I have another question. What do you think about the odds of getting the fish over time. As in on your first cast you have a 1:30,000 chance of getting it and by our thousandth cast, you have a 1:25,000 chance of catching it. What do you think about that? It seems that it could be probable, but Im not sure.

Well the way probability distributions work is regardless of how many tries, if the odds are 1:30,000, on your 1st cast or on your 30,000th cast, the odds remain the same. Its more likely you will catch a fish with more tries, but the odds do stay the same.

Its like flipping a coin with heads and tails. The odds of the coin landing on tails is 1:2. On the next flip the odds of it hitting tails again is still again 1:2. The odds are still 1:2 even on the 10th flip and even if the coin has landed on tails 10 consecutive times. As you flip the coin over and over again, soon enough the coin will land on heads.

As in yours and Baron Winkys idea, it could be a possibility that as you fish more often TT has set in the code to change the odds for you to be in your favor. Not sure how likely that is, but it could be a possibility.

The Dogfather

[Super Biscuit Megadoodle]

Nice work!

[The Dogfather]

Originally Posted by Super Biscuit Megadoodle

Nice work!

Thanks for the post!

------------------------------------------------------------------------

I am still willing to accept more data sets and input them into the graphs if people post their results on this thread. Maybe by having more input I can come up with a better conclusion, but for now this is the best conclusion there is.

The Dogfather

[King Ricky]

The 64-70 list I gave isn't the exact order in which I caught them. However, it is the approximate number from my count of how many buckets it took to obtain that particular fish (Ultra Rares Only). If you want to know the order for which fish I caught exactly in order let me know and I'll just edit it.


King Ricky

#65-Concord~1,000
#66-Grizzly Bear~,4,000
#67-Devil Ray~2,000
#68-Grand Piano~6,000
#69-Full Moon Fish~900
#70-All Star Fish~5,000


King Ricky II

#65-Concord~600
#66-Grizzly Bear~3,000
#67-Devil Ray~7,000
#68-Grand Piano~17,300
#69-Full Moon Fish~22,000
#70-All Star Fish~1,160



King Ricky IV

#65-Concord~1,060
#66-Grizzly Bear~300
#67-Devil Ray~43,000
#68-Grand Piano~31,200
#69-Full Moon Fish~84
#70-All Star Fish~2,000

[Sir Harvey Electrowoof]

Sir Harvey Electrowoof

#61 All Star= 100 fish
#63 Full Moon= 490 fish
#65 Devil Ray= 1400 fish
#67 Grand Piano= 630 fish
#69 Concord= 30,450ish fish
#70 Grizzly= 890 fish

Didnt realize how easy I had it...

[McBee]

will it help you to have mcbee's last few? She still needs one and I don't see myself getting it any time soon, 'specially when cash on Pirate keeps calling...

Didn't start counting until half-way through searching for the Grizzly.
#66 Grizzly- (approx) 7,000
#67 Grand- 19,000
#68 Devil Ray- 1,000
#69 Concord- 3,000

#70 Full Moon, 23,000+ and still searching...

[Tricky Electrobee]

I haven't naxed Tricky and I haven't been counting for the fish I'm looking for but I just wanted to ask...

Are you a genius because you do all of this.

There is no way I could have done this.

[Loopy Buster Googlenerd]

After reading your post I've come to this conclusion:

If I was any smarter, I'd realize how dumb I am!

Anyway, what are your thoughts on specific fish (Nurse Sharks) and frequency of boots and beans, and species records as a forecast of new species? And do you believe the programmers "stock" ponds and they can be temporarily "fished out"? In other words, do quieter zones hold more ultras because they are less fished? Someone also wrote that they fish after a Boss Battle because they have better luck. I also wondered if I should never walk ACROSS a pond to turn in fish, but rather stay on shore so as to not spook the big ones.

Got three to go and I'm not looking forward to *click, drag, unclick, repeat ad nauseum*..... Any thoughts would be helpful!!!! Thanks!

-Steve

[Sir Harvey Electrowoof]

^I think he is only giving us averages. Read his first post again and you will see it says fishing is based on random probability despite any evidence otherwise. I don't think Dog Father would be posting about luck in this case because even though eventually fishing is entirely luck, this is just a numbers graph about the rarest fish, not a guide on how to actually catch the fish.

[The Dogfather]

Originally Posted by Loopy Buster Googlenerd

After reading your post I've come to this conclusion:

If I was any smarter, I'd realize how dumb I am!

Anyway, what are your thoughts on specific fish (Nurse Sharks) and frequency of boots and beans, and species records as a forecast of new species? And do you believe the programmers "stock" ponds and they can be temporarily "fished out"? In other words, do quieter zones hold more ultras because they are less fished? Someone also wrote that they fish after a Boss Battle because they have better luck. I also wondered if I should never walk ACROSS a pond to turn in fish, but rather stay on shore so as to not spook the big ones.

Got three to go and I'm not looking forward to *click, drag, unclick, repeat ad nauseum*..... Any thoughts would be helpful!!!! Thanks!

-Steve

Steve,

The reason I wrote this analysis is because I wanted to determine if in fact fishing was based on a pattern or on plain old probabilities. If there was a pattern to catching fish based on fish position or species, you would see much more of a clustering effect around these specific points i.e. a smaller standard deviation. If fishing depended on fish position/species and not on probabilities and the average turned out to be 15,000 fish, you would expect most people to have very similar results, which is not the case. Some people caught new species in as little as a few hundred to almost 100,000 fish for either rare species or fish position. Since the standard deviations are far too great, this suggests that fishing has no pattern whatsoever, its all random.

What I mean by random is that each species has a specific probability of being caught. Some having a high probability (common species) and some with a low probability (rare species). Since fishing seems to be based on probabilites, and the data is suggestive of this, anyone of us is capable of catching any rare fish in as little as one cast or 100,000 casts. The data suggests that TT has set up a probability system in each species, some maybe having 1:100 of a chance and others 1:30,000 of a chance (these are hypothetical numbers).

If it is true that TT has a probability system in place, then I would have to say that they do not stock certain ponds with more rare species. Each pond in each district has the same probability. You can say that each pond holds different fish than other ponds in other PGs, but for any single fish in a specific pond from district to district, you have the same exact probability. It could be possible that they do stock ponds with more rare species to make things easier, but I cant say yes or no.

Some people might say that jelly beans or boots could play a role in facilitating you catching a rare species, but I cant say yes or no because the data I have collected is lacking that specific information. Since I still hold firm on random probabilities, I would believe that boots nor jelly beans affect your likelyhood. Neither do I think you can "scare" fish from the pond. The day I caught the Devil Ray in The Brrrgh PG, there were several cats meowing away in the middle of the pond a few minutes before I caught him.

Again, its all about luck. Some people in real life have rituals when it comes to luck and they have brought those type of rituals to TT. Some people think switching districts (which was my case), or fishing a few hundred fish in each pond (my case again), or maybe taking a break from fishing. Others think switching docks, or doing other tasks then fish some more. Regardless of what rituals we all use, since the data is suggestive of random probabilities, you just have to be at the right place at the right time. These rituals just make fishing more appealing and help you focus on staying on task; which is good, because fishing sure is BOOOOOORING!

I am looking into the data to see if I can come up with a hypothetical probability model of catching these fish. Not sure how likely I can come up with one because there is lots of info that I am lacking in each of the data sets. Info such as boots caught, jelly bean jars, catching a rare species for the second time and so on.

The Dogfather

[Deputy Chirpy]

I only Remember a few.

#58 Concord - 58
#59 Scruvy Cutthroat Trout - 265
#60 Siamese Cat - 268

I was really shocked at the concord. My fried had been looking for it for weeks then I go and fish with him and the 3rd bucket there is was staring at me.