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The percentages to get a specific item are always random, just like fishing. While a guide could be made to detail approximate, you could get an item on the first try or the 100th (though don't worry, never seen any take that long). Typically, the tasks in TTC and Donalds Dock will come the quickest, while recovery for The Brrrgh and DDL items will take longer. It just depends on the difficulty of the playground.
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