Quote:
Originally Posted by Loopy Buster Googlenerd
After reading your post I've come to this conclusion:
If I was any smarter, I'd realize how dumb I am!
Anyway, what are your thoughts on specific fish (Nurse Sharks) and frequency of boots and beans, and species records as a forecast of new species? And do you believe the programmers "stock" ponds and they can be temporarily "fished out"? In other words, do quieter zones hold more ultras because they are less fished? Someone also wrote that they fish after a Boss Battle because they have better luck. I also wondered if I should never walk ACROSS a pond to turn in fish, but rather stay on shore so as to not spook the big ones.
Got three to go and I'm not looking forward to *click, drag, unclick, repeat ad nauseum*..... Any thoughts would be helpful!!!! Thanks!
-Steve |
Steve,
The reason I wrote this analysis is because I wanted to determine if in fact fishing was based on a pattern or on plain old probabilities. If there was a pattern to catching fish based on fish position or species, you would see much more of a clustering effect around these specific points i.e. a smaller standard deviation. If fishing depended on fish position/species and not on probabilities and the average turned out to be 15,000 fish, you would expect most people to have very similar results, which is not the case. Some people caught new species in as little as a few hundred to almost 100,000 fish for either rare species or fish position. Since the standard deviations are far too great, this suggests that fishing has no pattern whatsoever, its all random.
What I mean by random is that each species has a specific probability of being caught. Some having a high probability (common species) and some with a low probability (rare species). Since fishing seems to be based on probabilites, and the data is suggestive of this, anyone of us is capable of catching any rare fish in as little as one cast or 100,000 casts. The data suggests that TT has set up a probability system in each species, some maybe having 1:100 of a chance and others 1:30,000 of a chance (these are hypothetical numbers).
If it is true that TT has a probability system in place, then I would have to say that they do not stock certain ponds with more rare species. Each pond in each district has the same probability. You can say that each pond holds different fish than other ponds in other PGs, but for any single fish in a specific pond from district to district, you have the same exact probability. It could be possible that they do stock ponds with more rare species to make things easier, but I cant say yes or no.
Some people might say that jelly beans or boots could play a role in facilitating you catching a rare species, but I cant say yes or no because the data I have collected is lacking that specific information. Since I still hold firm on random probabilities, I would believe that boots nor jelly beans affect your likelyhood. Neither do I think you can "scare" fish from the pond. The day I caught the Devil Ray in The Brrrgh PG, there were several cats meowing away in the middle of the pond a few minutes before I caught him.
Again, its all about luck. Some people in real life have rituals when it comes to luck and they have brought those type of rituals to TT. Some people think switching districts (which was my case), or fishing a few hundred fish in each pond (my case again), or maybe taking a break from fishing. Others think switching docks, or doing other tasks then fish some more. Regardless of what rituals we all use, since the data is suggestive of random probabilities, you just have to be at the right place at the right time. These rituals just make fishing more appealing and help you focus on staying on task; which is good, because fishing sure is BOOOOOORING!
I am looking into the data to see if I can come up with a hypothetical probability model of catching these fish. Not sure how likely I can come up with one because there is lots of info that I am lacking in each of the data sets. Info such as boots caught, jelly bean jars, catching a rare species for the second time and so on.
The Dogfather