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It might be as much perceptual as anything. Now that I have organic lure that hits often enough that I no longer worry about it missing, when it does miss I remember it. Mostly it misses in CFO and VP battles but not enough to make me want to change my trees to something else.
One toon I have with maxed gags has squirt trees (yeah I know "Squirt?") and his lure is not as reliable as the toons with homegrown lure (not organic, they contain pixels). It isn't flashy, no one can really tell you have it, but in my opinion it makes a huge difference. It would be interesing to get the base accuracy % from Disney for the homegrown lure but I would put it in the same range as throw. Remember also that against higher level cogs the accuracy will go down as it does with all gags. Luring 11s and 12s you will miss more often than when luring 5s and 6s.
If we wanted proof we would need to do an experiment where we have two toons with maxed lure, one with trees and one without, luring all the cogs in the Factory. The factory is completly consistent for the level of cogs in each battle although the variety varies. Use the medium magnet for every battle and record your hits and misses. I would recommend having the same team save for the one doing lure. Do 3 runs with each to get a good sample and you should have a good idea of the base accuracy.
I have suspected that the accuracy of lure depends on the lure skill of the other members of the team. When working a small toon with low lures I have noticed that when I am with strong toons the lure is much more accurate than when I am with small toons with low or no (gasp!) lure skill.
Another factor is the health of the cog. Again just my impression but I believe lure is more accurate on cogs when they are in the red than when they are green.
I have also noticed that gags can be streaky: you miss a bunch and then it goes back to normal. It may be again just a perception but it they also seem to miss more when you approach the next gag and at the beginning of a gag. In the middle it seems consistent if not as accurate as when you are maxed. Maybe Disney's accuracy program has a cyclic function where you go between higher and lower levels of overall accuracy. Or it could be coincidence and we are attributing reasons to it when it happens.
It may be overthinking things but it may be that there are differences between maxed toons based on how they built the toon. If when you first got lure you started working it in 5 story Dreamland buildings and VP battles where it would be expected to fail often you might condemn yourself to a future of less accurate lure. Take those dollar bills and small magnets to Toontown Central and work it against small cogs.
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